arch crawford: charts and predictions on the major u.s. markets, bonds, gold, oil & more // interview 2017 2018 astrology stocks stock market david moadel welcome to looking at the markets withdavid modell today i have a very special guest he is mr. arch crawford now archcrawford cut his technical analysis teeth as first assistant to top wallstreet technician robert ferrell or far as the case may be at merrill lynch inthe early 1960s in 1977 following arches
Earthlink Web Hosting Email, extensive research into astrophysicalphenomena astrology and its correlation to market performance he edited andpublished the premier issue of crawford perspective market timing newslettertoday nearly 30 years later crawford perspectives continues to bring readersone of the most highly regarded and
consistently accurate market timingnewsletters available and that is available on the internet at wwf furredperspectives dot-com i recommend everybody check that link but for nowmr. crawford thank you from for joining me today on looking at the markets uhdelighted actually it was 40 years lastly oh my goodness wow wellcongratulations and that's fantastic that you've been bringing thisinformation to people to the public for so long and your track records could youtake a moment to tell us about your track record well um i've been numberone market timer several times over the years i think i don't have it in frontof me but it was 87 and then 92 to 97
and then um 2001 to i predicted actuallythe crash in 87 and i predicted the war that us would be at war are around 911 imissed it three days ashley and then i was number two in 2002 in the visastockmar and number one in 2008 you can go toyoutube and see me on cnbc is number one in 2008 i have seen that video yes huhthen i was number one in the bonds i think in 94 and number one in the goldin 2006 that's quite an impressive track record so what i think people want tohear from you now are where do we go from here and that's in regard to themajor indices as well as some commodities that we'll be talking abouttoday so we're going to present some
charts that you were kind enough to sentto me and the first chart that we can look at if you like is actually not onechart but four charts and won including spx which is the s&p 500 the dow jonesdjia nbx which is the dollar and the 30 years that were i'm sorry as i said thewrong thing yes and that's an a stack i'm sorry and the 30 year bond weekly sowhenever you're ready we can go through those ok well the main reason i wantedto show these three in the most recent forms is that they all hit new highsyesterday you guys for the move with new highs all-time highs i think but if youcan look at the charts you can see that the strongest one is the spx where it isgone above the the lines of resistance
and arm and is well above the 50 all ofthem up above the 50-day moving average and well above the two that's the redline and the 200-day moving average which is the blue line that's lower sothey're all in strong strong uptrend but the as i say the s&p has made a strongerhigher high the dow jones it looks like it made a slightly higher close but nota higher high if you look back at where that first arrow to the right is rightyou can see that it did not make a higher high so far and the on the nbxit's uh it looks like it's pretty much stalled out with several highs rightaround 6000 and it closed i think today at 6000 for action so it is a new highand but it's not as dynamic the others
it's right about a little above themiddle of the rising trend channel and the dow jones is at the top of itsstream channel and the spx is above its trend channel closure i just thoughtthat was interesting to note how the major indices went but they went in withvery different they made the new highs with differentlevels of strength actually sure and we can go to whatever you like after thatall right so i said yeah so we definitely see different levels ofstrength but still you're right yesterday new all-time highs a lot ofcelebrating so i thought that was pretty interesting as well and not projectionsfor the future yes i'm looking for a
very strong rally into december but i'mnot sure if it started already or it will have a dip into october or not thenormal seasonal pattern is to dip down in september's generally the worst monthof the year right and then it bottoms in october and turns around ah that's thetypical seasonal pattern and it happens often enough to forget itright now i'm still betting for a i don't know i said that in the newsletterabout a 5 to 8 percent decline before the super rally starts taking place it'spossible though that it's already started so i'm cautious about that but iwill be more clearly um bullish about the markets as we getto
woods and past the time that itfrequently hits lowe's sure i think late october november and into december aregoing to be surprisingly strong and it's going to look crazy and and it willprobably peak out in december or january and then we can have more difficultiesmaking headway next year gotcha does this fall in line with the old sayingsell in may and go away and then don't come back until usually they sayhalloween day yes something like that the bottom that the crash dates it moremore tend to be in october but then it turns around quickly from a crash dateusually so right the october by the end of the month is is not your worst monthit used to be gotcha it all right
september is the worstnow it's september right right interested in fembra the best i thinkyeah december's the best okay all right i'm taking notes not very good so iwanted to look at some of the other things such as did you want to look atthe ten-year bond rate the tnx sure they were talking up the interest rates thefederal reserve was for the last year or so and they took it up i think it was inlate 16 where the the rates actually did go up sharply but after that they keeptalking like it they're going to take race up we're going to take rates up buti looked at the chart nothing i don't see that interest rate being strongenough steady enough to keep going up
and it started pulling back and then itpull back some more and then it pull back some more and now it's holdingmoderately steady around the 50 and 200-day moving averages where we'relooking at the chart now and we see a couple offailed attempts to raise right down yeah it's a low umlate last week i think it was and since then the next three days have beensharply higher from about two o two point o three early september was lowbut july early july was the high right now a sharp move up into early july wentup to almost two point four percent and it's been coming down and acceleratingdown the last week or so faster and
fasteron the downside and now it is turned rapidly around in this three days mondaytuesday wednesday it's gone up from what 203 the 219 so it's point one six higherthan it was three four days ago sure so that's a bullish possibilityit's still got a break above the 50-day moving average which is the red line andpreferably also the 200-day moving average which is the blue line that'shigher up around 2.3 beria to two point three four and those are heavyresistance and i personally doubt that it'll make it past a few hundred gradeblue line gotcha but tells my opinion right okay so it sounds like it's kindof a wait-and-see type of situation
we're not going to necessarily take aposition in this yeah which makes sense to me sure great great and then if youwanted to talk about the us dollar index i noticed you've got a wonderful monthlychart here i've taken a really long view of view of things with these monthlycharts and the dollar the us dollar has been getting hammered as people know in2017 so far every time it seems to be ready to just consolidate or poke itshead up it just goes right back down and then some so what's going on here wellwhat it did is it went up you can see the last year or two it stopped at abouta car it looks like a hundred hundred and one hundred and one and a half aboutin there and there's we have sideways
lines there and sideways lines at thehigh that was actually made both of those are technical highs that were longlong ago but they were powerful highs and lows at those prices and thoseprices i put those lines in there before this recent action and you see that itstopped at both of them yeah yeah and that having had hit the highest high ithink around january 1st i don't know if it was december 31st or the first day ortwo of january but it's come back down to the red line which in the monthlychart it's 50 month moving average yeah and so there is some that may turn itaround briefly and then we'll again we'll have to three about that but weare down to where it might attempt to
turn back up yeah so it is again unclearwhat it's going to do next but there is further support down at the 200 bar 200a month moving average which is about 89 yeah it looks like itwow so find out if it will continue to collapse okay right away it might itmight do a flag pattern to the upside and then collapse on down the much worsewith together what 80 is the strong sideways support bit with the averageprice there for several years yeah she that yeah yeah where the redline is is the 50 month moving average and you can see it got narrower andnarrower into a before it broke out to the upside and churn up and it's 14 nowit was so it's really at a decision
point now it's right up against the 50i'm so accustomed to saying 50 meaning 50-day moving average but for you it's50 months moving average which is a well depends on the chart yeahthe traitors i use those a lot yeah and i find that they're frequently supportsand resistance areas on the 50 gay the 50 weekend the 50 month right right but50 day is the most popular one so that sure i'm so used to that when i own thatnecklace so if it breaks through the 50 which in this case means 50 monthsmoving average it might have support at the the blue line which i think you saidis the what is that the hundred or the 200 200 200 okay the bridge is alsowhere it stops with where the red line
is is also the previous low from lastyear 2016 okay so you see it's a double technical support there yeah and andtherefore you would normally expect to get a bit about whether it was a goingto be a major change of direction i doubt that - it'll probably stay inthat area for a while okay okay i'm looking at things with afresh perspective this is great if you'd like to turn to one of my favorite insgold i love the precious metals whether it's a gl dia you those are the etf thatare so popular or for people who have the you know just are interested in thephysical you know so they might look at the spot price which i believe we'relooking at now well this is the current
contract right so it's the comex tradingbut it for the the nearest month delivering okay and that changes everycouple of months with every three to three months gotcha so anyway you seethe long-term downtrend from the high in 2011 with a touched another high in 2012and we have recently run into that same high several times yeahalong that same trend line and it finally it broke out of it brieflya while back and failed went to a lower recent low and then this time it hasbroken out clearly on the upside which is a very strong signright so it's uh i would like to see it break above the 2016 high which is about1370 high 70/30 right so it breaks above
that that would be even better but it isthe strongest sign we've seen in the last five yearssure okay i like it yeah i like it too can it ever reclaim its former glory andbe 17 1800 s um well i remember the old i was like 19 22 or 23 or something likethat yeah but i believe it will and i think that the dollar will eventually gomuch lower and there's arab countries that are forming a gold backinternational currency and also i think russia and china are talking aboutwarming and melted gold back currency so unless the dollar gets in line with thatit's going to be much lower in the next few years yeahand as people know the dollar us dollar
in goldtend to go in opposite directions so whatever is good for gold probably isnot so great for the dollar and vice-versagot it yes well that's just because we're looking at it it's price indollars but you can also look at the price in euros or swiss banks or sureretching rubles or whatever and sometimes you get different chartpictures depending on the weakness or strength of the other currency rightright gotcha all right very good so sounds possible cautiously bullish ongold possibly very good it looks good in football currencies right now yeah yepyep dollar maybe not so much and then
finally we've got oil which you know ilike to trade oil i for me it's at a range between 40 and 50 dollars a barrelrecently ever since that horrendous downturn when oil when iused to be a hundred plus dollars a barrel went down to around 26 and changeand then now it's in a range so what do you think that's the best call i've metit in the last few years when it dropped below 90 it was in a big trianglepattern not shown here and it stayed technically weak all the way down and istayed with it in the newsletter they just a short no oil station across thatshortage and that's all it went down to 26 and started bouncing around thereyeah and it's been in the area of 34 to
55 in the last couple of years yeah yeahand i see that and i see the what looks like the blue line which i believe ittold me is the the 200 appears to be just going sideways and we've got the 50which is again not not the 50-day 50 months right hello this one is a dailychart others a daily chart okay so we're back to a 50-day gotcha so it looks likethe 50-day moving average is starting to curl up a little bitthe the 200-day is going sideways not sure what to make of this what do youthink well it's been in that range for a very long time and it looks like itcould stay in there whether it breaks down from here up in here i would saythat the last few days it's looking a
little stronger so it may try to go backover 50 but it's really got to get over 55 55 points to 4 ok what was thehighest that it's been since 2015 rights right there on the chart 50 5.24 toohigh their most recent high at least yeahyeah gotcha so it's not exciting right now it's got a break out one way or theother and then put on another leg gotcha very good sir very good wow so much tolearn i did say the most of the most exciting thing right nowoh yeah yeah really i really like that gold chart i like all these charts butif i were to be one and of course the the current the bitcoins and they yeahthings like that which are going
absolutely nuts and which i've prettymuch stay away from right i i don't think it's been a healthy enough trendfor anybody but a traitor to to be in it yeah um although it may be may take overeverything and go to a million who knows yeah um i've one of my favorite books onthe on the topic of market is extraordinary popular delusions and themadness of crowds charles mackay mackay and i think for denariyep yep yep i i believe it's charles mackay yes or however two-ounce yeahi've i've actually read through that and it's still relevant today and either wayhe chronicles everything from the tulip madness to you know i it's it's likewe've seen this movie before you know
yeah and the patterns are similar rightright right you put into a situation where thingsare going a little crazy and i don't understand the wall street papers andnewspapers and everything says oh you can't kill when you're in a bubblethat's ridiculous we are in several bubbles right now and i don't rememberhe said just first but it looks like a block of black swan looking for a placeto land that's a great great image yeah black swan being a an unusualstatistical event that's uh it's extraordinary yep extry exactly usuallyin the negatives clear yeah yeah not too many welcome black swans uh they'reusually right right well i've been
speaking with mr. arch crawford and i'dlike to talk about your website there's so much on herefirst of all people can see your record if there are any doubters at this pointafter after listening to you and watching all these charts i don't knowwhy somebody would have any doubts but if they did they can check your recordthey can learn about you they can see all of your press you know you've beencovered on from cnbc so on and so forth and they've got you in the news eventsand so on now as far as the newsletter what can people expect if they sign upfor that well it's uh 12 monthly issues and it cost the same as it did in 1977two hundred and fifty dollars wow can
you can get a happier for 140 yeah yeahso inflation has not been an issue with with the newsletter you you've put itout there and you've kept it affordable and so and how often i'm sorry that thisis a monthly newsletter and and you give your assuming that there are charts intheir projections well the tosh you just looked at are inthat yeah yeah a technical chart of the new 52 week new highs on the new yorkstock exchange and it shows a long long downtrend of the number of spots on thenew york hitting new highs while the market indices have continued makinghigher highs the number of stocks are getting lower and lower yes fewer andpeople are making new highs right a
dangerous long term technical patternbut it may take a month to exercise the negative potential rightyeah bread is a market bread is a consideration whether you know how manystocks are participating is it just a few is it just the amazons and thetesla's and the netflix is carrying the market or they they have been carrying ahuge percentage yeah yeah and that that might not end well things we areprobably in a bubble could be it could get more slow before there's the endright right all uh you know the market can remainirrational longer than we can remain solvent i believe that was john maynardkeynes who who quoted that one and i
believe you're correct yeah i well i getit right once in a while well i'd again i've been speaking with mister artscrawford who's he's been on 20/20 geraldo good morning america wall streetjournal etc cnbc and so many more um and and now he's been so kind to take a fewminutes to speak with me and i recommend everybody go to crawford perspectivesdot-com check out the all the free stuff on there and then sign up for thenewsletter he has not increased the price and he's kept the qualityconsistent his track record is i don't know anybody who beats this track recordit's really something so people should definitely check that out are you onsocial media as well or is it mainly the
website um i have 3,500 people followingme on linkedin not too bad that's the more professional of there itis i would say so yeah so so if people type in arch crawford into the searchbox and and linkedin i'm sure they can find you no problem and and if peoplewant to contact you i well there's a contact link right there on the websiteor what is the best way to get in touch with you if they have questions wellthere's um you can email crawford perspectives at earthlink net caching hayou can call the office at five two zero five seven seven one one five eightgreat i'll put all that in the description once again crawfordperspectives at earthlink net or five
two zero five seven seven one one fiveeight crawford perspectives comm is the website crawford perspectives is thenewsletter one more real short note sure i was a technical market analyst atmerrill lynch in 1963 when i read on the front page of the wall street journalabout people who are using planetary movements in predicting market right sothat's how i got interested in it but as far as i know i'm the first person whoever actually calculated percent changes in the dow jones going all the way backto 1880s for many many different astronomic relationships right rightwell you did it first and i would say it did it best because again the trackrecord speaks for itself can't dispute
the numbers and can't dispute theproperty look so thank you mr. crawford you're welcome back anytime sir onlooking at the markets thank you for watching
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